Source: Hedge Funds Review | 22 May 2009
Categories: Hedge Funds
Topics: US Treasury, United States, Currency/currencies, Bear market, Bull market, Global macro, S&P 500, FTSE Group, Equity, Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index (GGHFI
Hedge funds moved solidly in April into positive territory for 2009 as measured by the Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index (GGHFI). The index returned 3.49% with the Greenwich Composite Investable Index (GI2) up 0.43% in April compared to global equity returns in the S&P 500 Total Return +9.57%, MSCI World Equity +10.91% and FTSE 100 +8.09% equity indices.
Year-to-date, the GGHFI returned a positive 3.91% and the G12 up 2.81%. This compares to the S&P 500 Total Return down 2.50%, MSCI World Equity falling 2.96% and FTSE 100 Indices losing 4.48%, in the same period. Almost three-quarters (72%) of constituent funds in the GGHFI ended April with gains
Macro managers expressed divergent views about the direction of the S&P 500 for May. Half reported a bullish view of equities compared with 45% in April while 40% of managers reported a bearish view versus 18% in April.
Managers grew more bearish on the outlook for dollar in May with 40% reporting a bearish sentiment compared with 27% in April.
For 10-year US Treasury prices, macro managers were more bearish compared with April with 50% reporting bearish, 30% neutral and 20% bullish outlooks.
Greenwich Alternative Investments Market Sentiment Indicators
|
US equities (S&P 500) |
|||
|
Expectation |
March |
April |
May |
|
Bullish |
75% |
45% |
50% |
|
Neutral |
0% |
36% |
10% |
|
Bearish |
25% |
18% |
40% |
|
US dollar |
|||
|
Expectation |
March |
April |
May |
|
Bullish |
33% |
55% |
40% |
|
Neutral |
25% |
18% |
20% |
|
Bearish |
42% |
27% |
40% |
|
US Treasury 10-year note (price) |
|||
|
Expectation |
March |
April |
May |
|
Bullish |
33% |
45% |
20% |
|
Neutral |
8% |
27% |
30% |
|
Bearish |
58% |
27% |
50% |
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